Crosbie & Company Canadian Mergers & Acquisitions Report for Q3 2025

M&A up as Deal Makers Regain their Mo-Jo and Focus on Safer Areas 

In Q3 2025, there were 662 Canadian M&A announcements, up 8% from the prior quarter and slightly above the trend line of the last several quarters. Total deal value climbed to a decade high of $145B driven by 20 mega deals, including three significant transactions that were all above $10B.     

Despite a continuation of the cautious mood of the last few quarters, it seemed like M&A began to shift positively in Q3 with strong activity for larger, higher quality companies in tariff insensitive sectors.  This started last quarter but there may also now be a shift in psychology underway with dealmakers adjusting to the realization that tariff and geopolitical uncertainties are unlikely to subside anytime soon.  Accordingly, companies are increasingly realigning their M&A strategies to succeed in this new environment. It also didn’t hurt to have the support of continued positive momentum in the equity markets and increasing expectations for interest rate reductions on both sides of the border.  

“Since late 2024, some M&A was clearly put on hold as counterparties tried to better understand and wait-out some of the changes imposed on them,” said Colin Walker, Managing Director at Crosbie & Company Inc. “But increasingly, companies and their principals are deciding that the uncertainty will continue to be with us for a while, so they better get on with their strategies.”  This has particularly been reflected of the larger end of the market where companies are announcing significant, strategic M&A deals.  Walker also added “but we also are seeing a change in tone in other parts of the market.  Principals are navigating thoughtfully to help them again use M&A as a cornerstone for both defensive and opportunistic strategies.”

In the third quarter, mega-deals (deals valued above $1 billion) continued to dominate total deal value, with 20 transactions, just shy of the decade-high 21 in the previous quarter. Total aggregate deal value reached US$127 billion, a new quarterly high-water mark. Driving this surge were three transactions over US$10 billion: Anglo American’s $38.4B acquisition of Teck Resources, one of the largest mining deals in Canadian history; Sempra’s $26.9B sale of a 45% equity stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to KKR & Co. and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board; and the $10.7B acquisition of Techem GmbH from Macquarie Asset Management, Partners Group, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan by a consortium headed by Partners Group, TPG Rise Climate, and GIC Private Limited.  It is notable that pension funds and private equity were involved in 7 out of the top 10 mega-deals.

The mid-market (transactions valued below $250M) stayed active in the third quarter, accounting for 85% of all announced deals with transaction values. Deal count fell 7% from the previous quarter but remained broadly consistent with historical levels.  

From a sector perspective, deal count increases were seen in Information Technology (+27); Materials (+17); Health Care (+13); and Utilities (+11). The largest declines were seen across Industrials (-10); Energy (-9); and Metals and Mining (-8). Metals and Mining and Utilities posted the highest total deal values at $38.6B and $29.6B, reflecting the impact of the two $20B-plus transactions.

Cross-border M&A remained a major contributor to overall activity, representing 44% of total announcements and 73% of aggregate deal value. Outbound activity rose 242% from last quarter due to the previously mentioned large mega-deals. Despite persistent trade headlines, Canada–U.S. activity continued to lead, accounting for 65% of cross-border volume and 58% of total value, in line with historical averages.

Overview

• Deal activity in Q3 rose 8% from the previous quarter to 662 announced transactions, slightly above the average level of the past five quarters
• Activity is up 21% from the 2023 low and appears to be trending upward as deal makers move past interest rate, inflation and short-term trade concerns
• Q3 aggregate deal value hit a decade high at $145B, with $106B (73%) coming from cross-border transactions
• Mid-market deals accounted for 85% of announcements where deal values were disclosed

Mega-Deals 

• There were 20 mega-deals announced in the third quarter of 2025, just below last quarter’s 21 transactions which represented a decade high
• The largest deal this quarter was Anglo American’s $38.4B acquisition of Teck Resources marking one of the largest mining deals in Canadian history

Industry Sector Activity

• Information Technology was the most active sector this quarter with 110 announced deals valued at $4.8B
• Notable increases in deal count were seen in Information Technology (+27), Materials (+17), and Health Care (+13); declines were more modest, with Industrials (-10) and Energy (-9) seeing the largest drops
• Metals and Mining and Utilities generated the largest aggregate deal volume at $38.6B and $29.6B respectively 

Breakdown by Transaction Size

• Mid-market activity (deal value below $250M) accounted for 85% of deal count and 5% of deal value
• Despite strength in large deals, activity in the mid-market showed some softness, with deal count down 7% Q/Q to 214 transactions

Canadian Domiciled versus Foreign M&A Targets

• Acquisitions involving Canadian targets rose 12% in Q3 2025 to 439, with 312 (71%) involving domestic buyers and 127 (29%) involving foreign acquirors
• Canadian firms made 479 acquisitions in the quarter, of which 312 (65%) involved domestic targets

Cross-Border Deals

• Cross-border deals made up 44% of overall deal activity and contributed to 73% of total deal value in Q3 2025
• Lower outbound activity combined with higher inbound activity pushed the outbound-to-inbound ratio below normal levels
• Canada–U.S. cross-border deals remained a strong driver of Canadian M&A despite political noise, accounting for 65% of transactions and 58% of total deal value

Deals by Provincial Domicile

• Domestic aggregate deal value increased quarter-over-quarter, driven by multiple mega-deals between Canadian counterparties
• British Columbia took Ontario’s usual spot for most deal value at $51.2B due to the $38.4B acquisition of Teck Resources